Economic Shift: Brazil's Service Workers Decide Presidential Runoff

Gilberto Almazan stands in Osasco, a city that has traded its identity as an industrial hub for a new nickname: São Paulo's Silicon Valley. He leads a metalworkers' union that once served as the political engine for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Today, Almazan watches the physical evidence of that shift: five new shopping malls have risen where metal, chemical, and textile factories once stood. The municipality, which voted for Lula in 2022, backed Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this year's election. Bolsonaro leads nationally, and every first-round winner since 1989 has gone on to become president.

The transformation in how Brazilians work has outpaced the political parties. Almazan describes the rise of drivers, food couriers, and small traders as "Uber-isation." These workers, he argues, value flexibility and freedom over the collective welfare structures Lula traditionally offered. Richard Lapper, a biographer of both presidents, notes that Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early, making the economic shock sharper. He calls Lula a victim of his own success. Despite unemployment hitting a record low and Brazil leaving the UN Hunger Map under Lula's watch, Lapper points to a crisis of expectations driven by high prices, debt, and interest rates.

Voters on the ground reflect this mixed sentiment. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant, cites government mismanagement and heavy taxes as reasons for his shift. Tairine, a hot dog seller who previously abstained, now plans to support Bolsonaro, stating that nothing has changed since Lula returned to power. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, says Bolsonaro offers the hope of change. In contrast, Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother in the Maré favela in Rio, still supports Lula. She cites the minimum wage increase and free medicines. She earns less than 300 pounds per month and fears Bolsonaro's plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang as a terrorist organization, following last year's Rio police raids that killed more than 130 people.

The campaign trails are diverging. Flávio Bolsonaro proposes cutting government spending, ministries, and some taxes while retaining key welfare programs. He denies recent corruption accusations. Lula’s campaign is mobilizing hundreds of thousands, including a rally in São Paulo that drew about a million people. The 80-year-old president uses social media to counter age-related criticisms, branding himself the "king of selfies." Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, are filling gaps in social services with childcare and food, aligning closely with Bolsonaro's platform on family values.

Abstention is a major factor in the runoff. In the first round, 33 million people did not vote, the highest number since 1998. In the Maré favela, turnout was above average, but Lula still won. Resident Andreza Dionísio blames last-minute polling station changes and a sense of hopelessness for the low turnout in other areas. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values on family and abortion. The final vote is scheduled for Sunday.

Almazan fears the end of an era as he looks at the empty factory sites. "There will never be another Lula," he says. The outcome will depend on whether voters believe Lula can offer a new narrative or if the service economy's demand for flexibility will cement Bolsonaro's lead.