Analysts warn of third war round after midterms
Experts predict renewed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran following the Nov. 3 vote, targeting Gulf energy sites and infrastructure.
By Elena Svoboda ·
Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official, said a third round of the U.S.-Iran war appears almost inevitable after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. He expects the fighting to be more destructive than the previous two phases.
Citrinowicz, who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, told CBC News that President Donald Trump has only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. He previously predicted that striking the Islamic regime would draw the region into a wider conflict rather than produce regime change.
The United States and Israel have fought Iran in two separate wars over the past 18 months. The first began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear facilities and lasted 12 days. A second phase started in February after a U.S. military buildup, opening with Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Citrinowicz expects the next phase to hit Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications lines beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also raised the possibility of limited Iranian ground attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain to damage the U.S. economy.
Both sides have held off on fresh strikes since the summer truce collapsed. However, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, and Iran has targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War said the vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands.
Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran and over 4,000 in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have also been killed. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown if Trump will approve it. Netanyahu, facing a close election, has spoken of finishing the job. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power via an emergency unity government, but warned that political calculation could lead to an unnecessary attack.
Source: CBC News
