Eisenkot Bets on 58 Seats for Israeli Cabinet Despite Rivals' Rejection of Minority Rule

Gadi Eisenkot is moving forward with a plan to form a minority government based on a floor of 58 seats. The former Defense Minister intends to lead the anti-Netanyahu bloc and serve as the primary candidate to construct the next cabinet. He explicitly rejects any arrangement that places him under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including rotation deals. Eisenkot argues that if the change-seeking parties secure 58 or 59 seats, they can still form a government by winning a confidence vote without holding a permanent 61-seat majority.

Current polling data indicates the anti-Netanyahu camp holds a lead over the outgoing coalition bloc. However, the Zionist parties currently fall short of the 61 seats required for a standard majority. Some surveys show the right-wing bloc also lacks a clear majority, leaving the election outcome dependent on small shifts in voting patterns. Eisenkot’s strategy relies on the legal distinction between forming a government and removing one. While a constructive vote of no confidence requires 61 MKs to back an alternative, swearing in a new cabinet only requires a majority in favor, allowing abstentions to facilitate the process.

Two major figures in the opposition oppose this approach. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman insist on a Zionist majority from the start and refuse to rely on the abstentions or support of Arab parties. Liberman categorically rejects a minority government, even a transitional one. He stated that another election would be preferable to a cabinet that does not meet his conditions. Bennett and Yair Lapid, who head the Beyachad list, share this demand for a strong Zionist base. Democrats chairman Yair Golan has not ruled out cooperating with the Ra’am party, a potential source of outside support for Eisenkot.

The leadership contest is intensifying alongside the strategic debate. Eisenkot aims to head the largest party, while Bennett views his experience as a former prime minister as a natural advantage. A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman earlier this week resulted in a joint call to boost voter turnout but failed to resolve their disagreement over the cabinet structure. Liberman has suggested bringing Likud MKs into a government without Netanyahu, though he has not named specific individuals or confirmed ongoing talks with them.

Simultaneously, the opposition bloc is nearing an agreement to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition deal is finalized. Replacing the speaker would allow Netanyahu’s opponents to control the parliamentary agenda, even if he remains head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected in a public vote early in the new Knesset term. The bloc could use MKs from Arab parties to assemble a majority for an agreed candidate. Names under consideration include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot’s list, and Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list.

Liberman estimated this week that up to one-third of outgoing coalition MKs might vote against Ohana, provided they do so openly. The bloc also plans to advance several legislative priorities, including a state commission of inquiry into October 7, changes to conscription law, and limits on the prime minister’s tenure. Liberman seeks a bar on individuals facing criminal charges serving as prime minister. No binding agreement exists on the specific order of these bills, and party teams have only begun coordinating on the details.