Competing Metrics Allow Rival Israeli Blocs to Claim Election Victory

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday in an election that produced no clear winner. Instead of a single outcome, the results allowed both major political blocs to declare victory. Each leader used a different definition of the electorate to claim success. The muddled result leaves the path to a stable government uncertain.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu focused his claim on those who support Israel as a Jewish state. In his election-night speech, he stated that Likud is the largest party in Israel. He argued that the right-wing bloc holds a decisive majority among the Zionist public and those who back the Jewish state. This calculation includes his haredi and far-right partners, such as Shas and United Torah Judaism. It also includes the Jewish parties of the change bloc. Netanyahu excluded Arab parties from this count.

Naftali Bennett measured the result by military service. He declared that the alliance of those who serve defeated the alliance of draft evaders. Bennett pledged to form a Zionist government based on that principle. His framing places the haredi parties on the losing side, as they resist conscription. This stands in direct contrast to Netanyahu's inclusion of those same parties in his winning coalition.

Gadi Eisenkot offered a similar perspective to Bennett. He stated that Netanyahu faced a larger and stronger Zionist majority. Eisenkot promised to form a government committed to conscription. Like Bennett, he framed the outcome as a win for those demanding equal sharing of military service.

Yair Golan took the broadest view of the electorate. He invoked the Israeli democratic majority. By Wednesday morning, he detailed the arithmetic by counting Arab parties alongside Jewish opposition parties. Golan argued that Arab votes carry the same weight as Jewish votes. If the parties opposing the outgoing coalition hold a majority, that is the correct way to judge the result. This calculation reaches the opposite conclusion of Netanyahu's.

Avigdor Liberman did not claim victory among a specific public. He appealed to a Zionist tradition he said Netanyahu had betrayed. He urged supporters of Trumpeldor, Jabotinsky, and Herzl to raise the banner of revolt within Likud. His message sought to separate Likud voters' Zionist loyalties from their loyalty to the prime minister.