Israel's Election Deadlock: 85% of Votes Counted, No Majority

As of Tuesday night, 85% of the votes in Israel's parliamentary election had been counted, and neither side had a path to power. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition and the bloc led by his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, both lacked the 61 seats needed to form a government. This gridlock sets the stage for a difficult period of negotiations or a repeat of the electoral cycle that has defined the country in recent years.

The most immediate obstacle is the refusal of the two main rivals to join forces. Eisenkot, who positioned his campaign as the primary alternative to Netanyahu, took the stage at his headquarters to call on the Prime Minister to "announce his retirement from political life today." He criticized a "culture of lies" and "division and incitement" that he said had wearied the public. However, this stance complicates any attempt at a national unity government, which would require Eisenkot's Yashar Party to join Netanyahu's Likud Party.

Netanyahu, for his part, signaled a preference for a strong right-wing alliance. At Likud headquarters, he thanked his "loyal partners" and called for a government that preserves his current coalition with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. A unity deal would likely require him to drop these allies, a move he has not yet indicated he is willing to make. Some observers suggest that a renewed conflict with Iran could pressure both leaders to compromise, as Netanyahu had recently pushed Donald Trump to approve US involvement in fresh strikes on the country.

A second potential path involves Eisenkot forming a coalition with Arab parties, a move that would mark a major shift in Israeli politics. The Arab bloc performed better than expected, with the United Arab List projected to win around 7 seats and The Joint List 12 seats. Together, they could secure a record 19 seats, driven by a high turnout from a population that makes up about one-fifth of the country. Despite this, every Jewish party in Eisenkot's bloc except one has ruled out joining a government with them, citing deep divisions over issues like Gaza and the West Bank.

A third scenario relies on Netanyahu poaching right-wing opponents from Eisenkot's side. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman are the most likely candidates, as they share security views with Netanyahu. However, both campaigned to extend military conscription to the ultra-Orthodox, a policy that conflicts with the two ultra-Orthodox parties currently in Netanyahu's coalition. Replacing those parties with Bennett and Lieberman may not yield enough seats for a majority, according to current electoral calculations.

If these negotiations fail, the default outcome is a new election. Netanyahu would remain the caretaker Prime Minister until the next vote is held. Analysts note that this situation could favor him, as the high Arab turnout may not be replicated and a second vote might mobilize more right-wing support. Additionally, the estimated 70,000 Israelis who traveled home from abroad to vote, many of whom lean against Netanyahu, may stay away next time. Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five elections as leaders struggled to form stable governments.