Iran Conflict Weighs on Republican Midterm Prospects as Trump Campaigns in Texas

The ongoing war with Iran has become a central obstacle for Republicans attempting to retain control of Congress. President Donald Trump travels to Texas for a midterm campaign event where Senate candidate Ken Paxton competes against Democrat James Talarico. Secretary of State Marco Rubio joins the campaign to view a newly arrived oil tanker filled with Venezuelan crude destined for Texas refineries.

Republican strategists admit privately that the conflict damages their electoral chances. They cite rising gasoline prices and new hostilities as factors driving up costs across the economy. Trump often describes the war as a little detour, but the situation conflicts with his earlier pledge to keep the United States out of foreign wars.

Noor Dubow, a 44-year-old dispatcher in Columbus, Ohio, illustrates this voter shift. Dubow has historically supported Republicans who align with his economic views despite disliking Trump’s rhetoric on immigrants. He says his early ballot this year leans toward Democrats due to frustration with the Iran war. Dubow works at a trucking logistics firm where he monitors fuel prices. He asks where the Republicans in Congress are and why they do not hold Trump accountable.

Democratic Governor JB Pritzker directs last-minute campaign spending toward Senate races in traditionally Republican states. Pritzker, who is nearing reelection and considering a 2028 presidential bid, allocates funds through his Ready for the Fight PAC. The group buys $1 million in ads for Scott Colom in Mississippi against Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith.

The PAC also spends $500,000 on ads for Adam Hamilton in Kansas against incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall. Money for voter turnout goes to Mississippi and South Carolina. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews seeks to unseat Senator Darline Graham. All three races represent potential upsets for Democrats.

First Lady MK Pritzker donates $500,000 to Democrat Amy Acton’s Senate campaign in Ohio. She cites a controversial ad from Acton’s opponent that features her estranged mother. Total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 midterms reaches $11.21 billion, setting a new record according to AdImpact. This figure exceeds the $11.20 billion spent during the 2023-2024 period, which included a presidential contest. The latest number has not been adjusted for inflation.

Two former FBI officials, Nikki Floris and Bradley Benavides, face a preliminary hearing on charges of lying to Congress about investigations involving Hunter Biden. Their lawyers call the charges baseless and politically motivated. The case is the latest in a series of investigative actions by the Justice Department as Americans prepare to vote.

President Trump vows to appeal a federal judge’s order pausing the renovation of a Washington golf course. Judge Ana Reyes issued a preliminary injunction that bars the removal or damage of trees on the course. The order requires the administration to provide 10 days’ written notice before making any irreparable modification to the course’s forms or features. Trump posted on social media that the development of the World Championship Public Facility must begin immediately to be completed in a timely manner. He stated the East Potomac Golf Course would remain public with reduced rates for residents.

Judge Reyes wrote that the court does not speak for the trees but speaks only for the rule of law. The judge previously noted she is not the Lorax. The temporary hold allows time for legal review before further changes to the site are made.