Israeli Election: Palestinian Bloc Holds Key 15 Seats

Palestinian citizens of Israel may decide who governs the country next week. With both major political camps projected to fall short of a majority, the 12 to 15 seats held by Arab parties become the deciding factor in the Knesset.

Current polling indicates that Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition will lose its majority in the 120-seat parliament. The Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also forecast to miss the 61 seats required to form a government. This leaves the balance of power in the hands of the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al.

Ahmad Tibi, who heads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for over two decades, stated that high turnout is a vital tool to end the current government. "We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down," Tibi said. He noted that the choice is between the far-right ministers Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, or the opposition bloc. He described the situation as a choice between "bad and worse."

Historically, alliances with Palestinian parties have been rare. Israel has had only two Palestinian ministers in its history: Raleb Majadele, who held the sport portfolio for two years, and Issawi Frej, who handled regional coordination for just over a year. However, precedents exist. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now part of the opposition. Netanyahu himself previously opened coalition talks with Abbas.

Voters express that fear is their primary motivation. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said the biggest driver is the danger of the far-right returning to power after the destruction in Gaza and rising discrimination. "The biggest motivation is fear," Abu Shehadeh said. He added that voters understand the risk if "these criminals come back to rule again."

The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre in which border police killed 49 residents. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group said a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to accelerate annexation and ethnic cleansing policies. He described the vote as a measure of mitigation rather than a clear solution. "There's no clarity about what comes afterwards," Iraqi said, noting that many people feel powerless in the process.