Israelis face weeks of uncertainty as election results leave no clear winner

Israelis braced for weeks of political instability Wednesday after a vote that challenged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power. The results raised the possibility of a government that includes Jewish and Arab parties, a scenario many considered unlikely before Tuesday’s election.

Final tallies may arrive as early as Thursday evening. No clear victor emerged. With 88% of ballots counted, Netanyahu’s Likud party held 20.7% of the vote. Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party trailed with 16.2%. Arab-led parties secured 15%.

The numbers indicate that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can form a majority. A government needs 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Local media projected 53 seats for Likud and its allies. Yashar and its partners stood at 48 seats. Arab-led parties held 19 seats.

Netanyahu warned against a "dangerous government" that might include Arab parties. These parties represent 20% of Israel’s population. His Likud party claimed the election was "stolen" by Arab voters and asked authorities to investigate. The party offered no specific evidence. The elections committee reported fewer irregularities than in previous cycles.

Eisenkot, the former military chief, left the door open to partnering with Arab parties. He set conditions, including recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas as an extremist group. Some of his likely partners initially ruled out such an alliance but might agree to force Netanyahu from office. A unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot remains another debated option.

Voters chose parties rather than individuals. Turnout reached nearly 78%, the highest since 1999. The vote reflected unease over Netanyahu’s far-right alliances and anger over military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews. Likud’s share of the vote dropped from 23.4% in 2022. However, opponents could not fully capitalize on the grief from the October 7, 2023, attack to decisively remove Netanyahu.

President Isaac Herzog is not required to task the leader of the largest party with forming a government. "We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections," Herzog said. If no majority emerges, new elections could be held early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 due to similar stalemates. Minority governments are also possible but would require outside support to pass laws.

Arab parties’ strong showing forced a national debate on identity. "We are here, we are not on the sidelines," said Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List. The party has only joined a governing coalition once, briefly, in 2021. In Nazareth, Awni Zoabi thanked God for a possible return to rationality. "The Arabic language has become as if it were a crime," Zoabi said. Counting of roughly 500,000 absentee ballots from military personnel and diplomats continues until Thursday evening.