Texas House Speaker Burrows spends $10 million to hold GOP majority

Texas Republicans have controlled the state House since 2003, but Speaker Dustin Burrows faces a challenging path to maintaining that advantage in the upcoming election.

Burrows, a sixth-term legislator from Lubbock, has led an expensive and visible effort to protect the party's 86 to 62 majority. His strategy involves direct financial support and personal campaigning for members in both safe and competitive districts. This approach marks a shift from traditional speaker behavior, where leaders often focused more on legislative priorities than electoral defense.

The financial commitment is substantial. Since the late May runoff, Burrows' main leadership PAC, Texas Conservative Majority, has raised nearly $8 million. The group has distributed approximately $10.3 million to 38 Republican candidates. This funding covers direct contributions, canvassing, polling, and advertising. Texas Freedom Alliance, another affiliated group, has spent $1.6 million on digital advertising and text messages supporting House Republicans.

The distribution of funds targets a wide range of districts. Burrows' operation has provided support to candidates in districts President Donald Trump won by as little as one percentage point in 2024, as well as those with margins as high as 35 points. State Rep. Candy Noble, whose Collin County district Trump won by 17 points, received over $205,000 from the PAC. State Rep. Brad Buckley, whose Bell County district broke for Trump by a similar margin, received $384,000.

Beyond money, Burrows' team has managed campaign logistics. Staff have worked with incumbents on messaging, budget management, and field operations. The operation polled historically safe Republican districts to assess candidate performance. This data-driven approach aims to ensure all members campaign with urgency. A bus tour called the Speaker's Strike Force launched alongside early voting to visit more than two dozen districts and encourage turnout.

Democratic opponents view the current environment as favorable for gaining seats. State Rep. Christina Morales, chair of House Democrats' campaign arm, said the party expects to pick up five to eight seats. National Democrats are targeting 12 flips, which would leave the GOP with a two-seat majority. Morales noted that Democrats are competing across the board, supported by a coordinated effort from the state party and major political groups. This contrasts with 2018, when Democrats flipped a dozen seats without such unified backing.

The most competitive races are concentrated in suburban areas of large metros and in South Texas. Democrats are targeting State Rep. Denise Villalobos in Corpus Christi, a district Trump won by just over one point in 2024. They are also challenging State Rep. Janie Lopez in the Rio Grande Valley. In the suburbs, Democrats are focusing on State Reps. Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button in Dallas County, where Trump margins were under six points. Republicans in districts around Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Fort Worth are also on defense.

The outcome will shape the next legislative session. A larger Republican margin could allow for more conservative policy initiatives. A thinner margin might complicate party-line votes and invite challenges to Burrows' leadership. State Rep. Matt Shaheen, R-Plano, described Burrows' effort as a transformation of the speaker's role. He said the speaker has made ensuring members return a central priority. This active defense contrasts with previous cycles where retiring speakers or different political dynamics defined the fall campaign.