Rio Grande Valley voters turn on Trump as midterm looms

The political mood in the Rio Grande Valley is shifting. Residents who helped Donald Trump secure a record share of Hispanic support in 2024 are now moving toward the Democrats with the November 3 midterms approaching.

Recent surveys taken since late summer indicate that a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas disapprove of the president. The data shows a Democratic lead of five or six points in the state’s 15th district. This district was redrawn in 2025 to give Republicans a notional 18-point advantage, yet the current numbers suggest the balance has turned.

Father Roy Snipes, a priest who has served a small Catholic chapel near the Rio Grande for nearly 50 years, preached to about 30 mostly Hispanic worshippers. He criticized the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, saying there is no good excuse to detain and deport neighbors. Government figures show Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026, the largest share of any state.

Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, expects a difficult race. He noted that while most people accept deporting criminals, the process becomes problematic when it targets productive, law-abiding citizens. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman who voted for Trump three times, plans to vote Democrat this year. He described an acquaintance whose crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to four or six, illustrating how the crackdown affects local businesses.

Democrats are leveraging these economic concerns. Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, runs for the 15th district seat. He focuses on the cost of living rather than the national party brand, telling voters this is not New York or Los Angeles. At a local avocado festival, residents Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices, with Baldwin stating that the administration is not doing a good job controlling their destiny.

Republican strategists acknowledge they are on the defensive. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, admitted that national political headwinds are real. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as purely a game of turnout. If the polls are accurate, this shift could reshape races beyond Texas, potentially putting a US Senate seat in play that Democrats have not won in more than 30 years.