Trump Campaigns Spent $277 Million, But Midterm Odds Are Bleak

Political groups aligned with President Donald Trump spent nearly $277 million to support Republican candidates since September. This figure puts the current cycle on pace to be the most expensive midterm election in history. The financial injection was intended to secure majorities in both chambers of Congress before voters head to the polls on Tuesday.

Despite the heavy spending, the administration's actions have complicated the party's prospects. Trump imposed tariffs, initiated a war in Iran, and oversaw major renovations in Washington, largely without consulting Congress. These decisions have linked the party to rising gas prices, costlier groceries, and persistent inflation. Republicans find it difficult to blame prior administrations for these costs because Trump has personally championed the policies.

The war in Iran, which Trump predicted would end in weeks, has continued for eight months with no clear exit strategy. This timeline contradicts his pledge to avoid Middle East conflicts. Rep. Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, a vulnerable House candidate, stated the war is making it exponentially harder for Republicans to keep the Senate and House. Former President Barack Obama argued in Ohio that the current administration is directly responsible for the rising costs consumers are facing.

Trump's approval rating stands at about one-third among U.S. adults, according to the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. This is lower than President Biden's approval rating before the last midterms and lower than Trump's own approval rating before the 2018 elections. Past presidents with low approval ratings often gave their party room to distance themselves, but Trump has not left that space. Candidates are taking subtle steps, such as removing mentions of the president from their websites, to manage this dynamic.

The administration's spending priorities have also drawn criticism. A ballroom deemed likely unlawful by Chief Justice John Roberts is rising over the White House. Trump has signaled he may begin work on a triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery and plans to close a Potomac River park for a golf course. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg argued in Virginia that the corruption seen in these projects is directly connected to the economic pain people feel.

Republicans are also dealing with internal dynamics in key Senate races. In Texas, outgoing Sen. John Cornyn warned that Trump's pick, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, is a weak candidate against Democrat James Talarico. Cornyn noted that flawed candidates in red states will have a hard time winning. In Iowa, Sen. Ashley Hinson is balancing loyalty to Trump with her own stance on issues, including the administration's deal with Russia to lower diesel prices.