Arab Parties Hold 17 Seats That Decide Israel’s Next Government

Israel’s parliamentary election has left the country without a clear governing majority. By Wednesday afternoon, with nearly 80 percent of ballots counted, no single bloc had secured the 61 seats required to control the 120-member Knesset. The result places the two Arab-led parties, Ra'am and the Joint List, in the position of deciding which side forms the next cabinet.

The outgoing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party holds 54 seats. The opposition alliance led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot holds 49 seats. This opposition group includes parties spanning the political spectrum, from Yair Golan’s Democrats to Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu. Together, the Arab-dominated Ra'am and Joint List hold 17 seats. This number is sufficient to push either major bloc over the threshold for a majority.

Turnout for Tuesday’s vote reached 77.7 percent of eligible voters, the highest level recorded since 1999. Estimates suggest that voting among Palestinian citizens of Israel, who comprise one-fifth of the population, reached approximately 80 percent. Roi Zur, a lecturer at Essex University who studies Israeli voting behavior, attributed the high participation to a well-organized campaign. He noted that the presence of just two major Arab lists improved mobilization, particularly for the Islamist Ra'am.

President Isaac Herzog will now consult with party leaders to determine their preferred prime minister. He will then task the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That individual has 28 days to build a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If they fail, the mandate transfers to another member of parliament. If that process also fails, the Knesset dissolves, new elections are scheduled, and the current cabinet remains in place as a caretaker.

Negotiations face immediate hurdles. Critics described the campaigns of both major blocs as profoundly racist. Likud petitioned to bar the Joint List from running and claimed the opposition planned to rely on Arab parties. Lieberman ruled out a coalition with Arab or ultra-Orthodox parties. Naftali Bennett, whose 2021 government included Ra'am, stated there was no mandate to govern with Arab parties following the October 7, 2023, attack.

Former government adviser Daniel Levy outlined four potential paths forward: a new election, Likud drawing defectors from the right, a Netanyahu-led unity government, or an Eisenkot-led minority government supported by Arab parties. Levy considered the last option unlikely but said the Arab parties' demands would not be excessive. Mairav Zonszein of the Crisis Group noted that Eisenkot’s demands for a state commission of inquiry into October 7 and universal conscription make cooperation with Netanyahu’s camp difficult.

Some analysts, including Levy, suggested the current government might seek a military escalation, potentially against Iran, to justify an emergency government. Daniel Bar Tal, a political psychologist at Tel Aviv University, described the moment as challenging. He said many Israelis want change but resist cooperating with Arab parties. The full tally of votes is expected by Friday, with official results due for publication on November 4.