Most Lebanese Shi'ites now want the state to hold Hezbollah's guns

A recent survey suggests that a majority of Lebanese Shi'ites now prefer to see Hezbollah's arsenal transferred to the state. The data, released in mid-October, indicates a notable shift in sentiment within the community that has historically supported the group. Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org both reported on the findings.

The poll was conducted by Statistics Lebanon in September among 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. It found that 66.4% of respondents supported handing weapons over to the Lebanese state. In contrast, 29.6% wanted the group to retain its arms. Hezbollah has long maintained that its military capacity is essential for defending the country against Israel.

Confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces remains high among these respondents. Approximately 78.5% said they trust the army, and 51.1% identified it as the best institution to guarantee long-term security. Only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. Furthermore, 71.1% believed decisions regarding war and peace should rest solely with the state, while just 5.9% favored a larger role for Hezbollah's leadership in shaping the future.

The group continues to command considerable trust despite recent setbacks. A majority of 59.5% still expressed some trust in Hezbollah, with 37.1% reporting a great deal of trust. However, 67.4% said the group had either failed or only partially achieved its goals in the war with Israel. Additionally, 42.1% voiced disappointment or concern regarding its leadership and the impact of the conflict.

The findings differ sharply from earlier data. A May 2026 survey by Information International, cited by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. That same survey indicated that more than 90% opposed ties with Israel. The discrepancy has raised questions about how specific wording in the polls may have influenced the results.

Local conditions also reflect changing dynamics. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed the opening of a branch for Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, in their building due to fears of Israeli strikes. Meanwhile, the group has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere.

Hezbollah has faced major losses in recent years, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new war began in March 2026, causing heavy destruction in villages across southern Lebanon. The survey results offer a snapshot of current sentiment in that community.