Brighton's 23 goals put pressure on Manchester City at the Etihad

Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 23 goals in their first eight Premier League matches. That total exceeds their expected goals of 16.2, placing them third in the table with a goal difference of plus-16. Manchester City, their EFL Cup opponents on Wednesday, sit fourth with a difference of plus-11.

The match is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET at the Etihad Stadium. Paramount+ will stream the game. Bookmakers list City at -150, the draw at +300, and Brighton at +320. A victory would move Brighton to within two points of the league leaders, though Arsenal could increase that gap before the match concludes.

Manager Fabian Hurzeler has adjusted the squad after losing Danny Welbeck and Jan Paul van Hecke in the summer. He moved Maxim De Cuyper to left back to add attacking drive. The veteran forward Pascal Gross, age 35, has recorded four assists and three goals. Gradient data shows Gross ranks in the 99th percentile for pressures that lead to dangerous situations.

The team leads the league in allowing opponents just 7.6 passes per defensive action. They also top the division in counterattacking goals, goals from corners, and shots from outside the box. Only Manchester City allows the opposing team fewer active minutes in possession than Brighton’s 21.5.

Hurzeler defended the team’s performance after a 2-0 loss to Liverpool. He stated, "there was one team who really tried to create and try to win this game." The team saw seven shots blocked in that match, and an early goal from Yasin Ayari or Charalampos Kostoulas might have altered the outcome.

Caveats exist regarding the current data. Brighton played with a man advantage in two matches, which accounts for more than 10% of their games. They also conceded 11.4 expected goals, a figure higher than their actual goals conceded. The team allows the third-highest expected goals per shot in the division, partly due to weak set-piece defense.

The club has yet to play winger Kaoru Mitoma or Yankuba Minteh this season due to injuries. Whether Brighton can defeat a rotated City side on Wednesday or the full-strength team on Saturday will serve as a clear indicator of their standing. The team is currently positioned ahead of Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, and Brentford in expected goals figures.