Change bloc wins majority but faces coalition deadlock in Israeli election

Tuesday’s election results delivered a clear parliamentary majority against the outgoing government, yet no clear path to forming the next one. The exit polls released at 10 p.m. by Channels 11, 12, and 13 show the change bloc holding more seats than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp, but they also reveal a fragmented opposition with no agreed-upon route to the prime minister’s chair.

The tension between seat counts and governing ability stems from the strong performance of Arab parties. These groups projected a combined 17 to 18 seats, a gain that helped deny Netanyahu a majority. However, the change bloc’s campaign promises to avoid relying on these parties create a structural gap. While the math works against the status quo, the political will to build a cabinet around those specific seats remains unproven.

Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, emerged as the head of the larger change bloc but faces a dilemma. His camp set four conditions for coalition partners that the Arab parties are unlikely to meet. Even if Eisenkot were to accept support from Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am party, the numbers might not close the gap. Including the Joint List would introduce further political hurdles, given the different demands of those voters.

An alternative route exists through the two ultra-Orthodox parties, which are projected to win 12 seats together. Adding them would provide a numerical majority. However, this option conflicts with the change bloc’s campaign pledges regarding haredi conscription. Bringing these parties into government would solve the arithmetic but make fulfilling their core policy promises considerably harder.

Another potential combination involves Likud, Yashar, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad, and Yisrael Beytenu. On the current projections, these four parties would hold 67 seats. This grouping excludes the ultra-Orthodox, Arab, hard-right, and hard-left factions. While numerically viable, it requires Netanyahu’s opponents to abandon their promise not to serve under him. It also demands agreement on leadership terms, a negotiation that has not yet begun.

The final vote count will determine if the broad picture holds. Until then, politicians must decide whether to honor campaign commitments or compromise to form a government. In 2009, Benjamin Netanyahu became prime minister despite Tzipi Livni’s Kadima winning more seats than Likud, because he assembled a coalition while she could not. Eisenkot must now find a similar path, deciding if his conditions are final or open to negotiation.