Brent Crude Holds Near $115 as Tehran Vows Policy Stability

Brent crude traded near $115 per barrel early Monday after Iranian leaders declared that their policy positions would not change regardless of future U.S. military actions. The price stability follows a period of volatility driven by concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising winter energy demand.

The conflict timeline accelerated in late February when the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign began on Feb. 28. By this weekend, President Trump framed the next move as a binary choice, telling Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures" that he must decide whether to "finish it off" or "make a deal." He referenced the possibility of a new "Epic Fury" strike, a term he used on Friday to describe potential renewed operations. Trump also asserted that the U.S. now controls the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the situation at a televised event in Tehran, stating that the prospect of new war has not altered the government's thinking. "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same," Araghchi said. He added that Washington and Israel had already attempted two strikes and would achieve no different outcome. Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that indirect contacts with the U.S. are still under way, though direct talks have appeared stalled for weeks.

Energy markets reacted to the diplomatic standoff with caution. The U.K. navy's Maritime Trade Operations center reported that a tanker exiting the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile on Friday, disabling the vessel. The crew was reported safe. Iran had previously claimed to have struck at least four tankers near the strait on Thursday, though those claims were not independently corroborated. Trump accused Tehran of inventing such attacks to push up prices before the midterm elections.

Regional mediation efforts intensified on Monday. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin traveled to Tehran for security talks. They met with Iranian officials, including security chief Mohsen Rezaei. Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly said the visit supports de-escalation and backs mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan. These talks come eight months after the war in the region began.

Violence continued in Yemen, where the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis toward Riyadh. The coalition also destroyed two missile launchers in Sanaa. The Iran-backed Houthis claimed they hit Riyadh's international airport with a missile hours after flights resumed. They also said they struck oil pumping stations with drones. Earlier attacks this month had closed the airport for more than two weeks and forced Saudi Arabia to postpone its flagship investment conference until 2027.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that Iran and its proxies might attack to disrupt Tuesday's elections. "Don't test us," he said. Defense Minister Israel Katz rejected a Channel 12 report of a clash between Netanyahu and army chief Eyal Zamir over a new directive, calling it "entirely baseless." Netanyahu had previously called the report "rubbish." Iran's foreign ministry stated that the election result "makes no difference" to Tehran.

Additional U.S. forces, including a third aircraft carrier group, have been sent to the region. However, American diplomatic staffing in the area has been reduced. Speculation has grown that Trump could order new strikes after next Tuesday's midterm elections.